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  • 首頁 環境時評人與自然最新動態焦點追蹤法律法規環境評價環保產業國內新聞國際新聞環境知識

    氣候變化

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    氣候變化[氣候平均狀態隨時間的變化]

    來源:網絡整理 人氣:次瀏覽 發布時間:2019-06-12

    氣候變化是指長時期內氣候狀態的變化。通常用不同時期的溫度和降水等氣候要素的統計量的差異來反映。變化的時間長度從最長的幾十億年至最短的年際變化。

    氣候變化[氣候平均狀態隨時間的變化]

    氣候變化(Climate change)是指氣候平均狀態統計學意義上的巨大改變或者持續較長一段時間(典型的為30年或更長)的氣候變動。氣候變化不但包括平均值的變化,也包括變率的變化。氣候變化一詞在政府間氣候變化專門委員會(IPCC)的使用中,是指氣候隨時間的任何變化,無論其原因是自然變率,還是人類活動的結果。這有別于《聯合國氣候變化框架公約》中的用法。在公約中,氣候變化是指“經過相當一段時間的觀察,在自然氣候變化之外由人類活動直接或間接地改變全球大氣組成所導致的氣候改變。  

    主要表現/氣候變化[氣候平均狀態隨時間的變化]

    《聯合國氣候變化框架公約》(UNFCCC)第一款中,UNFCCC將因人類活動而改變大氣組成的“氣候變化”與歸因于自然原因的“氣候變率”區分開來。氣候變化(climate change)主要表現為三方面:全球氣候變暖(Global Warming)、酸雨(Acid Deposition)、臭氧層破壞(Ozone Depletion),其中全球氣候變暖是人類最迫切的問題,關乎到人類的未來!

    原因/氣候變化[氣候平均狀態隨時間的變化]

    氣候變化的原因可能是自然的內部進程,或是外部強迫,或者是人為地持續對大氣組成成分和土地利用的改變。既有自然因素,也有人為因素。在人為因素中,主要是由于工業革命以來人類活動特別是發達國家工業化過程的經濟活動引起的。化石燃料燃燒和毀林、土地利用變化等人類活動所排放溫室氣體導致大氣溫室氣體濃度大幅增加,溫室效應增強,從而引起全球氣候變暖。據美國橡樹嶺實驗室研究報告,自1750年以來,全球累計排放了1萬多億噸二氧化碳,其中發達國家排放約占80%。氣候變化會帶來哪些影響? 氣候變化導致災害性氣候事件頻發,冰川和積雪融化加速,水資源分布失衡,生物多樣性受到威脅。氣候變化還引起海平面上升,沿海地區遭受洪澇、風暴等自然災害影響更為嚴重,小島嶼國家和沿海低洼地帶甚至面臨被淹沒的威脅。氣候變化對農、林、牧、漁等經濟社會活動都會產生不利影響,加劇疾病傳播,威脅社會經濟發展和人民群眾身體健康。據政府間氣候變化專門委員會報告,如果溫度升高超過2.5℃,全球所有區域都可能遭受不利影響,發展中國家所受損失尤為嚴重;如果升溫4℃,則可能對全球生態系統帶來不可逆的損害,造成全球經濟重大損失。據2006年中國發布的《氣候變化國家評估報告》,氣候變化對中國的影響主要集中在農業、水資源、自然生態系統和海岸帶等方面,可能導致農業生產不穩定性增加、南方地區洪澇災害加重、北方地區水資源供需矛盾加劇、森林和草原等生態系統退化、生物災害頻發、生物多樣性銳減、臺風和風暴潮頻發、沿海地帶災害加劇和有關重大工程建設和運營安全受到影響。

    氣候變化,全球科學家的共識是:有90%以上的可能是人類自己的責任,人類今日所作的決定和選擇,會影響氣候變化的走向。今日,地球比過去兩千年都要熱。如果情況持續惡化,于本世紀末,地球氣溫將攀升至二百萬年來的高位。

    過去一百多年間,人類一直依賴石油煤炭等化石燃料來提供生產生活所需的能源,燃燒這些化石能源排放的二氧化碳等溫室氣體是使得溫室效應增強、進而引發全球氣候變化的主要原因。還有約1/5的溫室氣體是由于破壞森林、減少了吸收二氧化碳的能力而排放的。另外,一些特別的工業過程、農業畜牧業也會有少許溫室氣體排放。

    在中國,煤炭在能源消費總量中占主導地位。1979年至2005年,煤炭資源消費在總能源消費中的平均比重為72.4%。在各種能源消費量的相對變化上,雖然煤炭占總能源消費量的比重呈現緩慢下降的趨勢,但其絕對消費量卻在不斷上升,煤炭消費占約67%,加之中國能源效率并不高,如此高度依靠煤炭發展是不可持續的,面對日益嚴重的全球變暖問題,人們只有一個選擇:必須立即采取行動。

    關于氣候變化的原因

    溫室原理:太陽輻射主要是短波輻射,地面輻射和大氣輻射則為長波輻射。大氣對長波輻射的吸收力較強,對短波輻射的吸收力比較弱。

    白天,太陽光照射到地球時,部分能量被大氣吸收,部分被反射回宇宙,大約47%左右的能量被地球表面吸收。

    夜晚,地球表面以紅外線的方式向宇宙散發白天吸收的能量,大部分被大氣吸收。

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