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    氣候變化

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    【詳解】IPCC發布的5次氣候變化評估報告

    來源:網絡整理 人氣:次瀏覽 發布時間:2019-06-12

    IPCC發布的5次氣候變化評估報告


    政府間氣候變化專業委員會(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)于1988年由聯合國環境規劃署及世界氣象組織共同組建,其任務是為政府決策者提供氣候變化的科學基礎,以使決策者認識人類對氣候系統造成的危害并采取對策。IPCC先后于1990年、1995年、2001、2007和2014年完成了5次評估報告。


    IPCC第一次評估報告


    IPCC第一次評估報告(FAR)于1990年完成。報告指出,過去100年全球平均地面溫度已經上升0.3℃~0.6℃,海平面上升10~20cm,溫室氣體尤其是二氧化碳由工業革命(1750—1800年)時候的230ml/m3上升到353ml/m3。如果不對溫室氣體的排放加以控制,到2025—2050年間,大氣溫室氣體濃度將增加一倍左右,全球平均溫度到2025年將比1990年之前升高l℃左右,到21世紀末將升高3℃左右(比工業化前高4℃左右)。海平面高度到2030年將升高20cm,到21世紀末升高65cm。報告同時指出,預測中有很多不確定性,特別是氣溫變幅、時間,以及區域分布等。根據上述氣候變化情景,評估了未來氣候變化對農業、林業、自然地球生態系統、水文和水資源、海洋與海岸帶、人類居住環境、能源、運輸和工業各部門、人類健康和大氣質量以及季節性雪蓋、冰和多年凍土層的影響,并初步提出了針對上述氣候變化的響應對策。


    IPCC第一次評估報告(IPCC,1990)主要采用不同復雜程度的大氣—海洋—陸面耦合模式(CGCM)對未來氣候變化進行預測,研究大氣CO2加倍情況下平衡態(即突然把CO2含量增加到工業化之前的2倍,然后積分到平衡態)的模擬結果,包括氣候變化的全球和區域特征。模擬結果表明,未來50~100年全球平均增溫1.5℃~3.5℃。


    1992年又編寫了第一次評估報告的補充報告,進一步給出了4個海氣耦合模式(AOGCM)在CO2以每年增加1%、在第70年左右加倍的瞬變態模擬結果,所預測的全球平均增溫值比平衡態模擬略有減少。


    IPCC第二次評估報告


    第二次評估報告(SAR,1996)的一個重要的目的是為解釋聯合國氣候變化框架公約第二條提供科學技術信息。報告的主要新成果表現在四方面:①模式預測除考慮了二氧化碳濃度增加外,還考慮了今后氣溶膠濃度增長的作用(冷卻作用)。結果表明,相對于1990年,2100年的全球平均溫度將上升2℃,其范圍在1℃~3.5℃之間;海平面從1990年到2100年,預測將上升50cm,其可能變化范圍在15~95cm之間,并且溫度升高會加速水循環,使一些地區出現更加嚴重的洪澇干旱災害,而另一些地區的災害可能會有所減輕。②人類健康、陸地和水生生態系統和社會經濟系統對氣候變化的程度和速度是敏感的,其不利影響有一些是不可逆的,而又有一些影響是有利的,因此社會的各個不同部分會遇到不同的變化,其適應氣候變化的需求也不一樣。③提出了使大氣溫室氣體濃度穩定的方法和可能措施。④提出了公平問題是制定氣候變化政策、公約及實現可持續性發展的一個重要方面。


    報告還匯總了全球范圍內氣候變化對水文和水資源管理的影響,指出:①降水總量、頻率、強度的變化能夠直接影響徑流量的大小、時間和洪澇與干旱的強度,但具體區域的影響程度尚不確定。②由于氣候條件對蒸散和土壤濕度的非線性影響,盡管溫度和降水出現較小的變化,但可能導致徑流較大的變化幅度,特別是一些干旱和半干旱地區。③在高緯度地區,由于降水增加會出現徑流增多,低緯度地區由于蒸散增加、降水減少的綜合效應,徑流量會出現減少。較強降水不僅增加徑流,而且會增大洪澇災害的風險。氣候增溫通過減少降雪的比例,從而減少春季徑流。氣候變化情景下,由于未來淡水供需不確定性的增加,將對社會經濟等諸方面產生一定的影響。


    在IPCC第二次評估報告中使用了更為廣泛的全球耦合氣候模式,CO2以每年1%的量值增加,直到達到工業化之前的2倍值,其中2個全球耦合模式還包括了硫化物氣溶膠的直接影響。這是氣候模式第一次在比較真實強迫情況下運行CO2增溫效應和氣溶膠冷卻效應的直接影響,模擬了過去并預估了未來的氣候情勢。其結果發現,由CO2的增溫作用和硫化物氣溶膠的冷卻作用情況下的歷史模擬結果與20世紀氣候變化特征的觀測結果更為吻合。相對于20世紀90年代,21世紀中期增溫約1.5℃左右。為了更全面地分析強迫情景的范圍和氣候敏感性的不確定性,使用了一個簡單氣候模式,分析了低排放、高排放等多種情景下的氣候變化情景,結果表明,21世紀末,全球變暖的極值范圍為1℃~4.5℃。當加入IS92排放情景中給定的人為氣溶膠的可能影響后,增溫范圍為1℃~3.5℃。


    IPCC第三次評估報告


    第三次評估報告(TAR)于2001年完成,該報告的主要結果包括以下方面:


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