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  • 首頁 環境時評人與自然最新動態焦點追蹤法律法規環境評價環保產業國內新聞國際新聞環境知識

    氣候變化

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    清華大學朱民:人口老齡化氣候變化讓AI能顛覆未來

    來源:網絡整理 人氣:次瀏覽 發布時間:2019-06-13

    清華大學朱民:人口老齡化氣候變化讓AI能顛覆未來


    網易科技訊3月31日消息,2019中國(深圳)IT領袖峰會于3月30-31日在深圳市五洲賓館舉行,本屆峰會圍繞“IT新未來:5G與人工智能”主題展開。清華大學國家金融研究院院長、國際貨幣基金組織前副總裁朱民發表了題為《世界經濟三大斷裂性變化和AI產業化發展》的演講。

    朱民表示,經濟危機10年,世界經濟發生了深刻的結構性變化,另外三個外生變量變了:人口老齡化、氣候變化、經濟結構輕化正在深刻的沖擊和改變世界,這都為人工智能發展提供了波瀾壯闊的舞臺。

    他篤定的認為人工智能產業化可以改變自己,改變世界,甚至改變歷史發展的軌跡。

    談及AI的發展重點,朱民從10個技術模塊進行了闡述,分別是機器視覺、語音和聲音感知、自然語言處理、搜索信息處理和知識提取、預測性分析、規劃和探索代理、語音生成、圖像生成、操作和控制、導航和移動等。

    “由此引發的產業影響力,將顛覆未來”,朱民還預測,人工智能會改變更新和創新幾乎所有的產品和服務,改變國防,改變社會的組織架構,最后,人工智能將改變人類本身。(丁廣勝)

    演講原文:

    朱民:世界經濟三大斷裂性變化個人工智能產業化發展

    吳鷹:朱民現在是清華大學國家金融研究院的院長,幾年前朱民先生關于人工智能方面就有很深的從經濟學角度的理解,今天他給大家帶來的演講主題是世界經濟三大斷層變化和人工智能產業化的發展,我們也期待著朱民先生給我們再一次帶來精彩的演講,大家熱烈歡迎!

    朱民:感謝會議的邀請,感謝吳鷹主席熱情的介紹,真是不敢當。很高興再次回到這個講臺,兩年以前我在這個講臺以一個偽人工智能專家的身份講了未來人工智能顛覆世界,今天我想回歸我經濟學家的本分,我講的題目是世界經濟三大斷裂變化和人工智能的產業化發展。

    危機十年,世界經濟發生了深刻的結構性變化。人口老齡化、氣侯變化、經濟結構的輕化,就是人的消費結構偏于服務業在發生變化,這個正在深刻的改變世界。從經濟學家的角度來說我們稱之為外生變量,這是不以人的意志為轉移的變化,我們只有接受和適應它。這三個變化也給人工智能提供了波瀾壯闊的發展舞臺,所以人工智能可以幫助解決這三個難題,同時在這個過程中找到自己發展未來的藍海,這是我今天想講的一個主題。

    一、人口老齡化,我們可以看到藍的斜線是全世界人口從今年75億在連續不斷的增長,右邊的圖綠的是發達國家、新興經濟國家勞動力的供給,大家可以看到最高峰恰恰是2008年,以后就逐漸下跌,到2040年左右下降為0,然后一度為負。紅線非洲的勞動增長率是不斷的上升,一直達到2100元,還有五千萬以上的勞動力供給。所以全球的勞動力供給市場很大,就業、移民以后都會成為一個大問題。在這個后面最大的問題是老齡化,我做了一張簡單的圖,我把2050年的人口結構減去今天的人口,看看人口凈增長在哪個年齡段。2050年比今天全球人口凈增23億,但是凈增的人口主要在60歲的年齡段、70歲年齡段,50、40歲年齡段增長的都很少,所以全社會的老齡化趨勢非常大。

    發達國家老齡化特別嚴重,大家可以看到主要的增長人口都在80年代,是80歲年齡段凈增人口。日本是一個最典型的老齡化的國家,從2050年和今天比,日本凈增的人口都在80歲以上,70歲的很少,所以人口老齡化是非常的厲害。老齡化改變了需求結構、改變了供給結構、改變了政府政策,中國也不容易,2050年和今天比,中國凈增長的人口都在60歲年齡段、70歲年齡段和80歲年齡段,中國跌的最厲害的是20歲年齡段的青壯年和40歲年齡段最有經驗的中層干部,所以中國老齡化也是很厲害的。我把時間段往前移,移到今天和2035年比的話,2035年用藍線,2050年用橘黃線來看,2035年比今天,在30歲年齡段的勞動力就要減少5千萬,在45歲左右的都在減少,增長到2035年的時候已經是60歲和70歲年齡段了。當然到2050年的時候,增長絕對的是偏向70歲和80歲。所以這一切在2035年就已經發生,我想在座的大家都會看到2035年,我不知道我能不能看到,在座很多人都可以看到2050年,你們也許都會是加入那個時候的70歲和80歲的年齡段的人,老齡化非常厲害。

    這是北京的人口結構,第一個圖基本上是以20歲的人為最大的基礎,北京在2035年以50歲的人為基礎,是呈三角上升,北京人口結構到2050年以60歲和70歲的人為人口最大的部分,整個老齡化的上升是非常厲害的。中國第二個上升最厲害的是廣東省,廣東省的老齡化也是非常厲害的,和這個圖非常相近,這個對中國經濟會產生重大的影響。日本是老齡化最早的國家,所以我們以日本為案例來看的話,日本在90年代到2016年期間整個產業結構發生了根本變化,整個建筑業、制造業、服務業、金融業都在萎縮,通訊、科技和健康服務業的行業在上升,政府所有的開支都不變,只有衛生醫療支出急劇上升,這都是老齡化走向的一個必然過程。

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