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  • 首頁 環境時評人與自然最新動態焦點追蹤法律法規環境評價環保產業國內新聞國際新聞環境知識

    人與自然

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    上漲看5000點與下跌看2000點的 基本是同一撥人!

    來源:網絡整理 人氣:次瀏覽 發布時間:2019-06-11

    【上漲看5000點與下跌看2000點的 基本是同一撥人!】悲觀論開始蔓延,朋友圈和許多投資群里有人開始恐慌性看空了,什么2400,2000點都有人開始喊出來了。大爺我發現一個有趣的現象,那些在下跌時喊2000點的人與在上漲時喊5000點的基本上是同一撥人。


    K圖 000001_1

      30度入冬,19度入夏,這就是廣東的氣候。廣州今年立夏的氣溫只有19度,比去年立冬時竟然低了6度,所以,人們驚呼廣州的立夏像是立冬,而立冬像是立夏。

      老天爺成心玩我們似的,完全不按牌理出牌,大家穿衣服也跟著亂了套,本來收起來了的厚外套又得從箱底翻出來穿上,身體虛弱的把秋褲都找出來了。

      在這個像立冬的立夏日,不僅老天爺亂發脾氣,A股本來五一假期前就有點虛弱,休息了幾天略有好轉,不料受到外部的驚嚇,五月飛雪,從3000點一頭摔了下來,這一摔不打緊,還把說好的牛市摔出“熊市”的傷勢來了。

      由于“氣溫”驟降,投資者不分機構散戶,全都懵圈了。

      悲觀論開始蔓延,朋友圈和許多投資群里有人開始恐慌性看空了,什么2400,2000點都有人開始喊出來了。大爺我發現一個有趣的現象,那些在下跌時喊2000點的人與在上漲時喊5000點的基本上是同一撥人。

      怎么會是這樣的呢?

      A股投資者的情緒波動率畸高

      春節后連續13周連陽,一度漲得讓人感嘆“過去是跌的心慌現在是漲的心慌”,沒趕上趟的人急得像熱鍋上的螞蟻,天天盼著調整,盼著“車”能停下來,給個上“車”的機會。

      大盤直沖3000點后,震蕩橫盤,欲調不調,不給空倉或者輕倉者機會,真是漲得讓人絕望,這個時候,喊3500點的聲音突然大了起來,喊4000甚至5000點的也不乏其人,害怕錯過大牛市的投資者開始追高建倉,每天萬億的成交金額足見交易的熱絡和投資者的沖動。

      確實,在這樣的氛圍之中,人很難保持情緒的穩定,大家都把眼睛往高處看,很少去想在任何點位都有可能出現快速的調整,尤其是,從春節后開始的13周陽線,大盤沒有經過一次像樣的調整。說實話,這樣的逼空式的上漲讓人感覺不踏實,從技術分析的角度來看,行情總是對稱的,一般來說,一個快速上漲的行情往往對應未來一次快速的下跌,因為沒有一個反復夯實的過程,快速的上漲意味著一旦調整起來,會是突然的,讓人猝不及防的,造成的沖擊和損失都會比較大。

      這也就是為什么股市里的“老司機”怕漲,而新手怕跌的緣故,因為老司機都明白快牛瘋牛難持久,漲得越快跌得越快。

      而新手則是漲的越快胃口越大越發不去考慮下跌可能造成的傷害,而一旦出現快速下跌,就會驚慌失措,從極度樂觀轉向極度悲觀。

      馬克·吐溫說,歷史不會重復,卻總是驚人地相似。

      這么多年以來,A股市場還是改變不了“漲起來像瘋子,跌起來像傻子”這個德性,而這一次,似乎把這種德性演繹到了極致。

      僅僅三個月時間,A股市場就從按都按不住的13周連陽的瘋牛狀態,快速轉換到兩周削掉了這波行情啟動以來一半的漲幅的節奏,大批個股甚至“一夜回到解放前”。

      馬克·吐溫還說過一句話,給你帶來麻煩的,并不是你不知道的事情,真正給你帶來麻煩的,是那些你原本深信不疑,最終發現事實并非如此的事。

      幾乎沒有人想到了調整可以如此猛烈。表面上看是外部因素使然,深層原因還是春節以來漲得太猛烈,存在調整的內在要求,外部因素只是一根導火索。

      大盤又回到2800點位置,投資者的心態又變得極為糾結起來,而那些在漲時看5000點的人,又開始悲觀到看2000點了。

      之前在3000點滿倉還信心滿滿的人,開始考慮要不要減倉了。

      之前在大盤沖到3288點快要絕望到唉嘆永遠趕不上車了的空倉者,當車又“倒回”自己面前的時候,忽然又猶豫不決不敢“上車”了,他們擔心“車”還要“倒”一段時間。

      直到“車”重新開走了,他們才會后悔“曾經有一輛車停在我的面前,我沒有珍惜”,然后又重復祥林嫂式的后悔莫及與絮絮叨叨。

      A股市場的波動率可能是全球大型股票市場中最高的,原因在于我們擁有一群情緒波動率畸高的投資者,不僅僅是散戶,我們的機構投資者同樣如此,在控制情緒這一點上,很少人能做得很好。

      情緒控制的難點在于,我們無法保持獨立思考的能力,我們的認知太容易受到別人,特別是那些與我們具有同樣人性弱點的人的影響。

      我們許多人,獲取信息的渠道決定了認知水平和思維模式。

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